What GSMA published
GSMA published its consumer eSIM market assessment on 1 May 2026 using GSMA Intelligence data. It estimates that eSIM accounted for about 5% of global smartphone connections at the end of 2025.
The forecast puts the share at 10% by the end of 2026 and expects another doubling during 2027. By 2030, eSIM smartphone connections are projected to outnumber connections using a removable SIM.
What eSIM penetration measures
Penetration is the share of active smartphone connections using an eSIM. It is not the same as the share of phones that are technically compatible.
A compatible device may continue using a physical SIM if its owner has not moved the main line or installed another digital profile, so device availability alone does not guarantee adoption.
How many operators already support eSIM
GSMA says commercial eSIM services are available from 73% of mobile operators, roughly three in four. Availability, however, does not mean that most customers actively use the feature.
The next challenge is turning formal support into simple installation, active promotion and routine subscriber use.
Why adoption is accelerating
Growth is supported by more compatible phones, some markets moving away from physical SIM slots, easier device transfer and profile activation through operator apps.
Second lines, temporary plans and travel eSIMs also give users practical reasons to try the technology, while banks, airlines, device makers and travel platforms increasingly embed connectivity in their applications.
How travel eSIM affects the market
Travel eSIM gives users a clear entry point: install a profile before a trip and use it for mobile data after arrival without replacing the home number.
It also broadens distribution beyond mobile operators. Data plans now appear in banking, airline, device and travel applications that already serve travellers.
What still slows adoption
Support varies by phone model, sales region and operator. Profile transfer or recovery after a lost or replaced phone may still require assistance, and users may confuse device support, an operator eSIM and a travel data plan.
Real adoption therefore depends on both compatible hardware and a reliable customer journey for issuance, transfer and recovery.
What the forecast means for users
eSIM will become more common, but the removable SIM will not disappear immediately. Users still need to check exact model compatibility, installation and transfer rules, dual-SIM behavior, roaming terms, data validity and speed restrictions.
The GSMA projection describes the global market. Adoption in an individual country will depend on operators, regulation, available devices and user behavior.
What it means for the eSIM market
If the forecast is realized, eSIM will move from an optional feature to one of the main ways smartphones connect. Operators will need simpler issuance, transfer and recovery, while device makers will need clearer multi-profile management.
Competition will grow not only between operators and eSIM services but also between the platforms through which travellers discover, buy and activate mobile data.